Publicis: The flywheel is alive and kicking - Why has the share price outperformed other ‘AI losers‘?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Publicis: The flywheel is alive and kicking - Why has the share price outperformed other ‘AI losers‘?

Christophe Cherblanc +41 582 723 540 christophe.cherblanc@bernsteinsg.com 17 July 2026

• While being slightly up is nothing to write home about, the overall Agencies performance pattern is strikingly better

than that of other “helpers” ensnared in AI debates such as Cap Gemini and or Accenture, routinely mentioned as

distant peers for the sector, or other media models perceived at risk (professional publishers), which have continued to

derate.

EXHIBIT 3: Agencies vs AI losers: Share prices indexed to EXHIBIT 4: Agencies vs AI losers: Share prices indexed to

100, in local currency (YTD) 100, in local currency (1 yr)

120 130

110 120

100 110

90 100

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

ACN US Equity CAP FP Equity OMC US Equity ACN US Equity CAP FP Equity OMC US Equity

PUB FP Equity HAVAS NA Equity 4324 JT Equity PUB FP Equity HAVAS NA Equity 4324 JT Equity

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

The AI debate is not settled yet, so we assume this share price stabilization reflects a derating deemed sufficient to reflect AI

risk to business models. We empirically observe this has occurred with P/E 2026e resetting in a HSD-10x range, which are

incidentally the levels now seen for ACN and CAP. PUB current 11x P/E 2026e implies a premium to this range, which we

believe is warranted by the expected growth differential vs peers.

EXHIBIT 5: Organic growth 2026-27-28e vs peers and EXHIBIT 6: The "AI at risk" basket's* P/E fell from c. 15x

Accenture to 12x over the last 12mo. Agencies P/E were relatively

stable