Woolworths and Coles: Private-label price check: Jul-26 – Aldi slices cheese prices

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Woolworths and Coles: Private-label price check: Jul-26 – Aldi slices cheese prices

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

17 July 2026

Woolworths and Coles

Private-label price check: Jul-26 – Aldi slices cheese

prices

Both supermarkets saw their price premium to Aldi increase in July, with Coles Australia

increasing to +9.4% (vs +9.2% in Jun) and Woolworths increasing to +9.2% (vs

Australian Consumer Sector

+8.9% in Jun). Over the past 9 months, Woolworths and Coles’ premiums to Aldi

have consistently drifted higher, from ~7.5% to ~9.3% on average. The sequential Bryan Raymond AC

premium uplift was driven by Aldi’s price cuts across Cheese and Deli items, with (61-2) 9003-6750

bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

a ~7% to ~10% step-down in several high volume Cheese products. This is

Christina Kim

surprising given the inflation in dairy categories of late (Coles attempted to lead the (61-2) 9003-7082

market up on Cheese in April). The key focus for the next month would be whether: christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

1) Coles and Woolworths follow Aldi’s price move down in Cheese; and 2) whether J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

this is a signal of future Aldi price moves across other high volume grocery

categories. Despite broader inflation trends, all three retailers saw flat or

deflationary MoM pricing trends in July. Inflation tailwinds have supported Coles

and Woolworths’ re-rating in recent months, as they trade 1.5x and 2.2x standard

deviations above average, respectively (+16% and +38% PER premiums to the

general industrials). We recently downgraded both Coles and Woolworths to

Neutral. The risk to the supermarkets at these levels would be a more competitive

pricing backdrop. We continue to view Aldi as an unlikely catalyst for this given