Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital (4017.SE)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Inpatients 50,903 68,226 84,123 88,909

Outpatients 1,808,316 2,024,277 2,340,450 2,617,505

Number of beds 835 1,185 1,185 1,235

Number of clinics 399 525 607 677

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Population growth in KSA (+16% from 2025- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

2035, at a CAGR of 1.5%) Better-than-expected execution of pipeline

Expansion of private health insurance coverage projects Sales / 3,658

Shortage of hospital beds in KSA Faster ramp-up of recently opened hospitals Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Capacity expansion pipeline: 3 hospitals & 920 (e.g Riyadh & Madinah) (SAR, mn) consensus data for this metric

beds by 2030 Accelerated rollout of private health insurance

coverage

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (593)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

Intensified competition in home markets: e.g. (SAR, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

premium insurance bracket in the West/Jeddah consensus data for this metric

Faster implementation of DRG payments

100% MEA system

Execution and ramp-up risks for pipeline 1.11

projects EPS

(SAR) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate consensus data for this metric

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 4.8%

0.30

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x DPS

HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1% consensus data for this metric

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.