Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Group (4013.SE)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Total beds 3,457 3,457 3,457 3,597

Utilisation rate (%) 60.0 65.0 75.0 77.9

Pharmacies revenues 2,856 3,125 3,574 3,860

Solutions/others revenues 251 297 364 393

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Population growth in KSA (+16% from 2025- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

2035, at a CAGR of 1.5%) Greater market expansion for the premium

Expansion of private health insurance coverage insurance class in Riyadh Sales / 14,894

Shortage of hospital beds in KSA Agreement reached with Insurance players on Revenue 14,424 16,054

Capacity expansion pipeline: 4 hospitals and 590 price increases (SAR, mn) 15,466

beds by 2030 Accelerated rollout of private health insurance

coverage across KSA

(3,618)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA (4,032) 4,095

(SAR, mn)

Intensified competition in home markets: e.g. 2,843

premium insurance class and/or Riyadh

100% MEA Faster implementation of DRG payments

7.13

system EPS

6.22 8.56

Execution risks for pipeline projects (SAR)

7.36

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

4.99

DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 42.6% 4.36 5.99

MS ALPHA MODELS (SAR)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x 5.16

4/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1%

MOST Horizon Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Quintile trends.