Avolta: Channel checks- mixed set up for sentiment

研报英文原文证据摘录

Avolta: Channel checks- mixed set up for sentiment

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

Avolta Equities

SwitzerlandChannel checks- mixed set up for sentiment

Retailers, Specialty

12-month rating Neutral

Solid/ mixed near term catalysts we think

We did some channel checks speaking to industry experts and evaluated market data. 12m price target CHF52.00

We think Q2 26E operating momentum for Avolta is resilient, but below its mid term Prior : CHF48.00

organic sales targets of +5-7% y/y. Key reasons are geopolitical happenings (Middle East

Price (13 Jul 2026) CHF51.65

c3% of Avolta`s group sales) and mixed consumer confidence. For Q2 26E, we forecast

organic sales for Avolta of some +2.5-3.0% y/y (UBSe +2.9%) with core EBITDA growth RIC: AVOL.S BBG: AVOL SW

of some -5% y/y to cCHF385-395m (UBSe CHF395m), resulting in a margin of some -

Trading data and key metrics

50bp y/y to c11%. In particular European key tourist destinations remain resilient but

52-wk range CHF54.95-41.46

impacts from the attractively profitable Middle East should be considered. The Q2 EFCF

should be good at cCHF360m bringing H1 26E towards cCHF200m (almost flattish y/y) Market cap. CHF7.22b/US$8.86b

we estimate. Overall amid the current geopolitical happenings and catalyst Shares o/s 140m (ORD)

materialisation, investor sentiment could remain somewhat volatile near term. Free float 84%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 493

Recent industry data solid in Europe Avg. daily value (m) CHF23.8

Global air passenger growth dropped to -3.4% y/y in April and was negative at -2.2% Common s/h equity (12/26E) CHF1.65b

(ex Middle East +0.7%) in May according to IATA. According to ACI Europe (European P/BV (12/26E) 4.3x

airport trade body), passenger growth in May was +3.2% y/y (link) underpinning Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.9x