Getlink Truck market share gains sustained y/y in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

Getlink Truck market share gains sustained y/y in June

servative approach and uncertainties around late bookings into peak

UBS Cons.

summer season, our analysis of recent Eleclink auction spreads continues to suggest 12/26E 0.57 0.58

upside to FY26/FY27 consensus estimates. Despite FY26 consensus EBITDA having 12/27E 0.63 0.60

increased by ~2% over the last three months [link], we forecast FY26/27 EBITDA 12/28E 0.63 0.62

+2%/3% above VA cons. at €893m/€927m. We continue to see upside risk to

shareholder returns in 2027 with Eleclink and Trucks benefiting from periods of elevated Amal Patel

profitability, supporting stronger cash generation. Analyst

amal.patel@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3973

Putting this all together - where do we stand on the key debates?

Cristian Nedelcu, CFAWe rate Getlink Neutral with a PT of €19/share. Whilst we see upside risk to medium-

Analyst

term EBITDA estimates and shareholder returns in 2027, we find risk-reward at the cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

current valuation less appealing. We remain constructive on Getlink's medium-term +44-20-7568 4375

growth story, centred on i) an acceleration in rail pax growth driven by new entrants/

routes and; ii) a potential cyclical upswing in truck volumes driven by closer UK-EU ties

but see few near-term catalysts that could drive a further meaningful re-rating from

current levels.

Valuation: Neutral, PT €19.0/sh

Our SoTP valuation methodology combines a DCF covering the concession period and

multiple based approach.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 1,829 1,614 1,650 1,723 1,773 1,781 1,836 1,894

EBIT (UBS) 725 598 609 654 689 692 732 773

Net earnings (UBS) 326 317 320 310 340 339 370 402

EPS (UBS, diluted) (€) 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.63 0.63 0.68 0.74