Price hikes bode well for 3Q guide; Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Price hikes bode well for 3Q guide; Buy

(SEK)

with most of the q/q growth coming from Americas (EBITDA +36% q/q on rising prices/

From To % ch Cons.

stable shipments) and Ruukki (+SEK107m q/q on seasonality). Our forecast is 6% below 12/26E 6.62 7.34 11 7.39

cons, though SSAB often beat our forecasts in Europe on mix improvements/efficiency 12/27E 9.48 10.54 11 8.97

savings. We also think consensus is likely to look through pre-safeguard EBITDA, with 12/28E 9.72 10.45 8 9.15

the focus likely to be the trajectory for 2H (inc the 3Q guide, where our EBITDA forecast

is 13% above cons) given the impending market tightness as EU imports fall materially Andrew Jones

and the lagged impact of US price hikes hit the income statement. Analyst

andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 6545

Estimates up and PT up

Myles AllsopWe lift our 2026/27/28E EBITDA estimates 7/8/5% after small increases to our price deck

Analyst

and assuming some moderation of costs in Europe following the Iran conflict. This, plus myles.allsop@ubs.com

an increase in our target multiple from 5.5x to 6x (to acknowledge the clear re-rating in +44-20-7568 1693

EU steels as a result of the "HALO" trade & structurally higher margins) results in an

Zenande Meyiwa

17% increase in our PT to SEK112/sh.

zenande.meyiwa@ubs.com

Valuation: Buy, SEK112/sh (+17%) +44-20-7567 5474

We value SSAB on a 50/50 split; DCF (10.0% WACC) & 6x target 2027E (5.5x prev) EV/

EBITDA. The stock still appears cheap on 5.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA vs LT avg of 6.1x. We see

its Special Steel division benefitting from a multi-year bull market for mining capex and

defence spending (for its Armox product) and its EU and US commodity steel businesses

will benefit from structurally higher margins on trade protection measures, which are