Global Precious Metals Comment: A different route to the same destination

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Precious Metals Comment: A different route to the same destination

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Global Precious Metals Comment FX

GlobalA different route to the same destination

Joni Teves

Strategist

Taking a breather... joni.teves@ubs.com

+65-6495 6851

Gold is still consolidating as market participants continue to recalibrate rate expectations

in response to fresh headlines and data. The Iran conflict, its impact on oil prices and

inflation, and incoming US economic data are all keeping investors alert, but none has

yet pushed gold into a clear new trend. The market appears to be adjusting and finding

a base, rather than reversing. Higher rate-hike expectations and rising real yields remain

headwinds, but any signs of softening in the data or easing inflation concerns could

quickly lend support. With summer trading conditions now in place, liquidity is thinner

and conviction is lower, which should continue to keep gold in a tighter range. We

continue to think much of the negative news has already been priced in. In that sense, it

is encouraging that gold is still holding around the $4,000 area despite renewed

discussion of rate hikes. This suggests that underlying support remains in place, even if

momentum has cooled for now. The broader precious metals complex also appears to

be forming a base around recent ranges. Platinum and palladium have held up relatively

well, likely helped by their constructive fundamentals, with both markets still expected

to remain in deficit this year. Silver has been a laggard, underperforming gold recently as

the gold:silver ratio hovers above 70. Earlier scrap flows, triggered when silver reached

all-time highs, are likely still making their way into the market just as investor interest

and physical demand have become quieter.