Ampol: Stronger platform, but re-rated to fair value

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Ampol: Stronger platform, but re-rated to fair value

fining Margin (LRM) >$US$30/bbl. We expect ALD to release unaudited group RCOP Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.5x

EBITDA ranging $1300-$1400m (UBSe $1,362m v cons $1,346m) underscoring a strong

EPS (UBS, diluted) (A$)

1H. We forecast LRM over 2H26 at US$17/bbl (vs cons $15/bbl) impacted by the planned

From To % ch Cons.

shutdown (1 Aug-10 Oct), which we expect to see 300ML lower prod'n & ALD likely 12/26E 2.18 3.85 77 3.99

miss out on elevated refining margins over 2 months, however 2H refining earnings risk 12/27E 2.45 2.49 2 2.38

remains skewed to the upside (2H26 Lytton EBITDA UBSe $257m vs cons $200m) based 12/28E 2.73 2.76 1 2.48

on the supply-side impact of escalating conflict in the Middle East/Russia. Middle

distillate cracks (partic. diesel/gasoil) are rising, amplified by >50% of Russian refining Tom Allen

capacity offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes causing Russia to temp. ban diesel exports Analyst

tom.allen@ubs.com

& initiate imports. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to near zero in recent

+61-3-9242 6237

days (see our Daily Hormuz Tracker) & we are mindful that damage to energy infra within

the Persian Gulf may be a catalyst for materially higher product prices. In Asia, the Minas Shaun Cousins

211 spot crack (a proxy for ALD) has risen in recent days to >$38/bbl (see Figure 12Minas21vsLRM(US$/bl)WeareforecastinganLRMofUS$30.2/blfor2Q26asglobalmarginmarkersremainelevatedandpricesforcrudeoildeclinedtowardtheendofthequarter,thisisslightlybelowconsensusestimatesatUS$32.2/bl.). Analyst

shaun.cousins@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3844

Valuation: $36.65/sh (+16% vs prior Buy at $31.50/sh, Jul-25)

Maike Baumeister

Our forecast incl. additional debt (+ leases) that come with EG Aust. This, combined with