Gulf Development Best positioned for Thailand‘s next power cycle

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gulf Development Best positioned for Thailand‘s next power cycle

s. We believe the market has yet to

fully reflect the scale of potential growth and value from these opportunities.

EVIDENCE Renewable Energy Phase 1 (2023) and Renewable Energy Phase 2 (2025) followed the approval of

PDP 2018 Rev.1, highlighting the historical link between PDP approvals and procurement activity.

GULF secured approximately 33% of renewable PPAs across the last two rounds. GULF is also

developing approximately 163MW of gross data-centre capacity through its existing partnerships and

operates around 9.6GW of equity installed power capacity.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? We believe the market is valuing GULF primarily on its existing earnings and operating assets,

overlooking its future MW opportunities. Adjusted for AIS, KBANK and other non-power

investments, multiple metrics remain near or below historical averages, despite potential emergence

of a 55-70GW capacity cycle. During previous PDP roll-outs and major procurement rounds, investors

re-rated the stock as future MW growth became more visible. We believe a similar re-rating could

occur as PDP 2026 advances, future PPAs become more visible and DC demand materialises.Please

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

DC potential Gas IPP Renewable UBS Valuedrivers WACC

(equity) potential potentials AIS fair value

Bt91 upside 389MW 3,500MW 11,000MW Bt422/share 4.0%

Bt82 base 249MW 2,800MW 7,500MW Bt400/share 4.0%

Bt51 downside 163MW 0MW 0MW Bt331/share 5.5%

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description Gulf Development PCL is Thailand’s largest private-sector infrastructure and energy group, with key

businesses spanning power, natural gas, infrastructure, telecoms, satellites, data centers, and digital

services.