Initiation of Coverage: Balance sheet as key for future opportunities

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initiation of Coverage: Balance sheet as key for future opportunities

, diluted) (Bt)

net-zero transition, rising evening peak demand and accelerating DC growth. We From To % ch Cons.

estimate the combination of future PPAs and data-centre developments could translate 12/26E - 0.50 - 0.73

into more than Bt3tn of total investment opportunities over the next two decades. 12/27E - 0.70 - 0.94

12/28E - 0.84 - 1.05

Balance-sheet flexibility remains key

Warayut Luangmettakul, CFA

Under our framework, we believe funding capacity will be a key to determine the pace

Analyst

and scale of BGRIM's participation in the next investment cycle. We estimate BGRIM warayut.luangmettakul@ubs.com

could secure approximately 500MW of future PPAs and 58MW of equity data-centre +662-613 5753

exposure, implying roughly Bt30bn of CAPEX and approximately Bt11bn of incremental

equity value. This assumption reflects BGRIM's more constrained funding profile, with

2026E net debt/EBITDA of 7.4x and net D/E of 2.1x, among the highest in the sector.

Based on a net D/E covenant of 3.0x, we estimate borrowing capacity of approximately

Bt40-50bn. As a result, funding constraints may limit BGRIM's ability to pursue larger

opportunities or multiple growth projects simultaneously.

Valuation: Initiate at Neutral with DCF-based PT of Bt20.00

Our Bt20.0/share PT is based on DCF methodology using a 5.5% WACC and

incorporates existing assets and future PPA and DC opportunities. Our PT implies a 12-

month forward P/B of 2.9x, which is roughly 0-1SD below historical averages and prior

PDP-cycle valuation levels. We believe this discount appropriately reflects near-term gas-

cost pressures, lower ROE and modest future MW participation. Upside could come