FEMSA: 2Q In Sight: What Would It Take to Reignite Conviction?

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FEMSA: 2Q In Sight: What Would It Take to Reignite Conviction?

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

FEMSA Equities

Mexico2Q In Sight: What Would It Take to Reignite

Conviction? Retailers, Broadline

12-month rating Buy

12m price target P240.00FMX is MexBol’s 3rd Best-Performing Stock YTD

Excluding KOF, we expect another solid quarter from FMX, marked by above-peer

SSS at Oxxo and margin expansion across its main retail businesses. However, Price (16 Jul 2026) P224.82

following the stock’s strong outperformance (+23% in MXN and +27% in USD YTD), RIC: FEMSAUBD.MX BBG: FEMSAUBD MM

despite a fundamentally weak Mexican consumer backdrop, we believe the debate

has shifted from whether results will be good to whether they will be strong enough Trading data and key metrics

to reignite investor conviction—and, to some extent, ours. We keep our estimates 52-wk range P232.52-156.48

broadly unchanged ahead of the print, with the only meaningful revision reflecting Market cap. P767b/US$44.0b

our updated KOF forecasts. Shares o/s 3,413m (ORD)

Free float 61%

FMX Consolidated: We model topline growth of +6%, with EBITDA margin expanding Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,764

50bps to 14.5%, reflecting solid trends across FMX Retail, partially offset by softer Avg. daily value (m) P591.5

performance at KOF. Below EBIT, the main area to watch will be the effective tax Common s/h equity (12/26E) P237b

rate, which came in at 40% in 2Q25 (vs. Mexico’s 30% statutory rate) and compares P/BV (12/26E) 3.2x

with our 36% forecast for 2Q26. Provided financial expenses remain relatively Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.3x

contained, we estimate net profit could grow by as much as 2x y/y.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (MXN)

UBS Cons.

FMX Retail: We forecast revenue and EBITDA growth of +7.5% and +10.7%, 12/26E 11.38 10.24