China bank pulse monthly – soft RMB loans/TSF in June; potential supports from end-July Politburo meeting?

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China bank pulse monthly – soft RMB loans/TSF in June; potential supports from end-July Politburo meeting?

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

China Banks Equities

ChinaChina bank pulse monthly – soft RMB loans/TSF

in June; potential supports from end-July Banks, Ex-S&L

Politburo meeting? MayAnalystYan

may.yan@ubs.com

+852-2971 7157

Both H- and A-share China banks underperformed in the past month Helen Li, CFA

Analyst

The MSCI China Banks Index was -5.8% in the past month, underperforming the MSCI helen-za.li@ubs.com

China Index (-2.1%). Among our H-share coverage, MSB-H was the best performer (- +852-2971 6066

2.2% MoM) and CITIC-H was the laggard (-9.8%). For A-share banks, the sector index

Alex Ye

was -2.8% in the past month, underperforming CSI300 (+0.2%), with BOBJ being the

best performer (+2.0%) and ABC the worst (-6.3%). S1460522090005

alex.ye@ubs.com

June credit data: new RMB loans and TSF weaker than expected +86 755 2215 8858

June credit data remained soft and fell short of market expectations. New RMB loans Catherine Yang, CFA

totaled Rmb1.6trn, Rmb630bn lower YoY and below consensus estimate of Rmb1.9trn. Analyst

The weakness was broad-based versus last year, with lower readings across both S1460526010003

household and corporate loans and across tenors. On a positive note, these categories catherine-za.yang@ubs.com

returned to positive prints after net contractions in previous months. As expected, +86-755-2215 8860

discounted bill financing stayed strong, though it declined MoM on seasonality. New TSF

came in at Rmb3.4trn, Rmb861bn lower YoY and slightly below the Rmb3.5trn market

estimate. Corporate bond financing was the key support, while RMB loans and special

local government bond issuance were both weaker than last June. Overall, June loan