Axia Energia Market Is Trading the Quarter; We Think It Should Be Trading the Cash Flow

研报英文原文证据摘录

Axia Energia Market Is Trading the Quarter; We Think It Should Be Trading the Cash Flow

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Axia Energia Equities

BrazilMarket Is Trading the Quarter; We Think It

Should Be Trading the Cash Flow Electric Utilities

12-month rating Buy

12m price target R$76.00The mechanism: Axia is a cash-generation story, not an earnings story

In our view, investors should think about Axia primarily through its cash-generation

capacity. Over recent years, the company has significantly simplified its balance Price (16 Jul 2026) R$50.29

sheet and reduced the relevance of non-recurring effects, making underlying cash RIC: AXIA3.SA BBG: AXIA3 BZ

generation increasingly transparent and a more reliable valuation anchor. The key

variable remains the future path of power prices. Axia continues to retain Trading data and key metrics

significant exposure to commercialization opportunities, with approximately 34% of 52-wk range R$73.50-40.70

its energy remaining uncontracted in 2027. That open position preserves Market cap. R$148b/US$29.0b

meaningful upside to favorable power-price dynamics and remains one of the Shares o/s 2,943m (PNB)

company's most important sources of value. Using a normalized operating Free float 87%

framework -— assuming maintenance capex (R$2bn) only and modulation of R$20/ Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,782

MWh - we estimate that under a R$150/MWh power-price environment Axia is Avg. daily value (m) R$316.4

capable of generating approximately a 10% free-cash-flow yield. Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$110b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.3x

A weaker 2Q26 was already embedded in our estimates and reflects temporary Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.3x

hydro-allocation, GSF and submarket-dispersion effects rather than any

EPS (UBS, diluted) (BRL)