2Q26 Preview: Calm Before the 2H Storm?

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: Calm Before the 2H Storm?

safety and algo changes. Post algo change, was a notable drop in Steal a Brainrot copies Revenue in this chart is equivalent to net bookings,

in the top 30, with multi-year hits like Brookhaven and Adopt Me! back on top. It's possible, if not for GAAP Revenue please refer to our income statement.RBLX estimates represent EBITDA

likely, those monetize per user lower than Steal a Brainrot.

Our View: 2Q user data was better than feared, and new experiences like Grow a Garden 2 and

Exhibit 1 - RBLX age checks and chatAnimal Hospital have shown new hits are possible even after the algo changes. We expect a 2Q segmentation has placed it on the correct side

Bookings beat at 14% y/y growth, but stay cautious on 2H comps. 2Q User data was up y/y, but of most global social media regs, including

mobile DAUs/CCUs were still off -16%/-12% vs their 3Q25 peaks. We are at -8% y/y Bookings for unbanned in Indonesia, Russia and Turkey

in 2Q26. However LT engagement impact of3Q26, lower than Street at -4%. The 2H uncertainly may limit any 2026 guide flow-through from a 2Q changes and 2H comp concerns remain

Current Status of RBLX Among Global Social Media Regulation Pushbeat, and we struggle to see the stock working without a guide raise. With RBLX still trading 18.5x Country % DAU RBLX Status Explanation Policy Rollout

1.4% Unclear EU rejected draft; in-revision 9/1/2026FY27 EBITDA, we stay Hold and raise our PT to $50 at 16x FY27 on an improved 2Q, but without a GermanyFranceSpain 1.5% Unclear First draft pending TBD 0.7% Unclear New draft pending Autumn 2026

NZ 0.1% Unclear Postponed since May 2026 TBD

Slovenia 0.0% Unclear First draft pending TBDFY guide raise we would not expect the stock to continue recent momentum into tough 2H comps.