2Q26 Preview – Time to Push Through The Noise

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview – Time to Push Through The Noise

ent, and 3) a more balanced (and attractive) growth and

Q1 0.81 - 0.97a - 1.16

margin profile relative to other Application Software peers. Q2 0.82 - 0.87 - 1.03

Q3 0.96 - 1.15 - 1.37

Estimate Setup Screens Reasonable. From a numbers standpoint, the setup Q4 0.92 - 1.21 - 1.42

screens favorable with current consensus constant currency (cc) cRPO estimates e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

implying YoY growth of +19.5%, in-line with management guidance and implying a

150 bps deceleration (vs Q1) against a 50 bps easier YoY compare. Our inorganic

contribution assumptions suggest consensus constant currency (cc) cRPO estimates

imply organic YoY growth closer to +17%, representing a deceleration of ~250 bps

vs Q1 (organic). We think investor expectations look for; 1) Q2 YoY constant

currency (cc) cRPO growth in the range of 20.5%-21.5%, implying a 100-200 bps

beat vs guidance (vs <100 bps in Q1 excluding inorganic, 100 bps in Q4 excluding

inorganic, 250 bps in Q3, and 200 bps in Q2), implying organic growth in the range

of 18%-19% (relatively in-line with Q1 organically at the high-end), and 2) FY26

constant currency (cc) subscription revenue growth raised by a portion of the beat,

largely in-line with historical practices on a YoY growth basis (raised in 2Q25, raised

in 2Q24, raised in 2Q23). Bottom line, the setup looks achievable and with

acquisition-related noise now accounted for in numbers, the opportunity to shift

the narrative and drive improved execution appears more clear. Moreover, a solid

Federal demand backdrop and opportunity for consumption to ramp in the

second half of the year provide incremental catalysts through the balance of the