Ford Motor: Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 Preview: See Modest Beat; All Eyes on Novelis Ramp Near-term; Preview on 2027 Bridge (DRAM, Novelis Roll-off, UEV/BESS Investments)

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Ford Motor: Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 Preview: See Modest Beat; All Eyes on Novelis Ramp Near-term; Preview on 2027 Bridge (DRAM, Novelis Roll-off, UEV/BESS Investments)

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

16 July 2026

Ford Motor

Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 Preview: See Modest Overweight

Beat; All Eyes on Novelis Ramp Near-term; Preview on F, F US

2027 Bridge (DRAM, Novelis Roll-off, UEV/BESS Price (16 Jul 26):$14.19

Investments) ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$16.00 Prior (Dec-26):$15.00

We expect a modest EBIT beat in 2Q26 (Table 1FJPMevs.ConsensusSumaryEstimates), characterized by slight y/y

automotive EBIT growth driven by lower EV losses, lower regulatory costs, higher Autos & Auto Parts

price/mix, and lower gross tariff costs, offset by lower volume and higher commodity Rajat Gupta AC

costs (inc. DRAM and Aluminum). Key areas of potential upside are: 1) stronger (1-212) 622-6382

price/mix (including the benefit of lower EVs); and 2) software, parts & services rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

growth, while areas of potential downside are: 1) higher commodity expenses/ Yash Beswala

DRAM, 2) vehicle recall/warranty expenses, and 3) BESS/UEV investment cadence. (1-212) 622-0028

yash.beswala@jpmchase.com

Into 2H, we see EBIT modestly higher y/y, driven by 4Q Novelis recovery, lower tariff

Jash Patwa

costs, continued growth in software & physical services and lower warranty expenses,

(1-212) 622-5472

partially offset by the timing of launch investments (UEV/BESS), and increasing jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

DRAM pricing headwinds. Investors will also look to get an early peek into 2027 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

moving parts (see Figure 4JPMeFGlobalAuto2026Y/YEBITBridgeand Figure 5JPMeFGlobalAuto2027Y/YEBITBridge for our bridge), with a focus on commodity