Burnham-o-nomics: Economic implications as new UK PM takes office

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Burnham-o-nomics: Economic implications as new UK PM takes office

16 July 2026

Burnham-o-nomics EconomicsUnited Kingdom

Economic implications as new UK PM takes office

◆ We look at Andy Burnham’s policies on devolution, Elizabeth Martins

housebuilding, taxation, spending and more Senior Economist, UK

HSBC Bank plc

liz.martins@hsbc.com

◆ While these could deliver results over the medium term, the +44 20 7991 2170

constraints on the public finances may limit the extent of change

◆ Meanwhile, the UK’s resilient but subdued private sector faces

a potentially long wait for an uncertain Autumn Budget

Could the UK’s new PM deliver change? Definitely maybe

The UK’s new PM Andy Burnham has pledged to deliver “good growth in every

postcode and hope in every heart”, by empowering local authorities and mayors to

deliver “reform of essential utilities, reindustrialisation, and the regeneration of

places” – a set of policies he characterises as “Manchesterism”.

New Order incoming

It’s an appealing prospect for a subdued UK economy. Reindustrialisation feels like a

stretch, but devolution, building council homes and reforming property tax could all be

beneficial for the economy over the medium to long term, in our view.

We suspect, though, that if Mr Burnham’s tenure is to be truly marked out from that of

his predecessor, there will be a fiscal cost. That would need to be funded by tax

rises, which the public wouldn’t like, cuts to spending elsewhere, which Labour MPs

wouldn’t like, or more borrowing, which the gilt market wouldn’t like.

Complicating matters further, Mr Burnham has committed to keeping to the existing

fiscal rules and the 2024 Labour manifesto, which promised not to raise income tax,

NICs for employees or VAT, and to keep the pensions triple lock. That points to a