Elisa: Trimming estimates following Q2. Remain cautious on Q4 recovery.

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Elisa: Trimming estimates following Q2. Remain cautious on Q4 recovery.

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

17 July 2026

Elisa Underweight

ELISA.HE, ELISA FH

Trimming estimates following Q2. Remain cautious on Price (16 Jul 26):€35.26

Q4 recovery. ▼Price Target (Dec-27):€35.00 Prior (Dec-27):€39.00

Whilst Elisa stated that the Finnish market should recover in the coming quarters,

we treat the Q4’25 pricing hangover as still active, not resolved. Heading into European Telecommunication

ServicesH2’26, we are concerned customers could churn as they roll off low priced 12-

month fixed contracts; this occurs during a commonly high promotional Q4 period. Ajay Soni AC

Furthermore, operators are adamant on maintaining market share in a tight pricing (44-20) 3493-8462

ajay.soni@jpmorgan.com

environment which requires everyone to remain rational to ensure the market can J.P. Morgan Securities plc

improve. Following the guidance downgrade at Q2 results, we trim 2026e service

Akhil Dattani

revenues 1% with mobile service revenues (MSR) 1% lower and ISS 4% lower. (44-20) 7134-4725

Elisa cut telecom service revenue guidance to 0-2% y/y from 1-3%, with JPMe at akhil.dattani@jpmorgan.com

+0.2% (pre-Q2 cons: +1.1%). 2026e MSR is modeled at -0.4% y/y (pre-Q2 cons: J.P. Morgan Securities plc

+1.0%). These estimates are driven by our updated scenario analysis which shows Ankur Baheti, CFA

that recent KPIs would have to materially change to deliver positive MSR growth. (91-86) 5796-8820

JPM is 1% below 2026e EBITDA and 6% below 2028e, with EPS 2%/8% below. ankur.baheti@jpmchase.com

We remain Underweight with a Dec-27 PT of €35 (previously €39). J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

• Remain cautious on 2026 outlook: We ran a sensitivity analysis varying