Forecasts Rising: Upgrade to Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Forecasts Rising: Upgrade to Buy

and we slow cost growth to 3% from now on, again, as guided. PREV 10.50 23.40

Source: company-collected consensus

Exhibit 1 - IHP forecast changes

£bn unless stated FY26e old FY26e new %chg. FY27e old FY27e new %chg.

FUD 83.1 87.3 5% 90.2 94.7 5% Exhibit 2 - UK Adviser platform market share,

December 2025 (£B)

Net flow 4.0 4.3 8% 3.7 3.8 3%

Revenue (£m) 176.5 178.8 1% 193.7 203.2 5% 110.3

Underlying EPS (p) 20.2 21.0 4% 23.0 25.0 9%

.

Source: Jefferies estimates 104.6

A strong market position: We suspect that the platform market will end up with a few major

winners and a variety of small niche providers, with platforms in the middle ground suffering. 488.6 77.2

Transact appears to be firmly in the winners' enclosure, with c. 20% of sector net inflows in

2025 and 1Q26, and standing third in terms of total AUA (we would note that Nucleus's position

at the top is largely due to acquisitions). We think it can gain perhaps 1pp of share a year. . Nucleus Quilter Transact Other

Source: Fundscape, Jefferies

Broadening appeal: Transact used mainly to target small and medium advice firms, in part

because larger ones would try to get discounts for their scale. We understand that IHP Exhibit 3 - 1Q26 UK Adviser platform net flows

(£B)

increasingly sells to larger firms as well, still without discounting, perhaps helped by sales of 8.0

7.0the Curo software suite acquired a few years ago. While we think adviser consolidation is often

0.5 1

6.0overstated, a move into bigger clients is still strategically advantageous. 0.6

5.0 1.3

1.6Valuation: We continue to use a DCF, taking a 9% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate. 4.0 Quilter 13.0

This approach now gives a £4.36 valuation which we round to £4.40, and upgrade our 2.0 Aviva

recommendation to Buy.