India Real Estate: 1QFY27 Preview: Outperformance should continue; GPL and Oberoi are preferred picks

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India Real Estate: 1QFY27 Preview: Outperformance should continue; GPL and Oberoi are preferred picks

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2Q; 149% of FY26 sales), alongside potential new launches (Table 7), could

mark its best-ever year for pre-sales.

• GPL (OW): We expect GPL to surprise positively on pre-sales and cash flows.

We forecast 1QFY27 pre-sales growth of 25% y/y to Rs88.5bn (-13% q/q),

with cash collections up 20% y/y to Rs44bn. GPL is the only DevCo in our

coverage with a sizeable project launch during the quarter (Vanantara,

Bengaluru, with sales above Rs20bn). EBITDA margin should recover to ~33-

34% vs. 27.6% in 4Q (JPM calculations). The key discussion is likely to center

on OCF growth and the path to turning FCF positive (management has guided

for 4QFY27/early-FY28).

• OBER (OW): We expect FY27 to be a monumental year for the launch

pipeline and pre-sales. The Rs81bn of sales at Oberoi 360 North alone accounts

for 149% of FY26 pre-sales of Rs54.5bn. 1QFY27 numbers could stay benign,

but we do not expect the stock to sell off post-results. We forecast a 14% y/y

increase in hospitality and 18% y/y increase in commercial revenues (EBITDA

margin of ~90%), with occupancy at Sky City mall rising to 80%. Key watch

items: progress on other residential and commercial launches (Table 7),

litigation at 360 North (link), and strength in Mumbai-sustenance sales.

• Lodha (N): Lodha has been the best-performing stock in the last 1M (Table 4),

which we think is largely driven by DC land sales. Our calculations suggest

c7% upside from land sales (Table 8), and hence the stock's outperformance

should likely pause. Our channel checks point to core residential sales

underwhelming this quarter. We forecast 1QFY27 pre-sales of Rs56.2bn (up