Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy: Mindful of risks, confident of resilience

研报英文原文证据摘录

Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy: Mindful of risks, confident of resilience

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

16 July 2026

Emerging Markets Outlook and

Strategy

Mindful of risks, confident of resilience

Emerging Markets Strategy

Luis Oganes AC

(44-20) 7742-1420

luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Jahangir Aziz

Key topics (1-212) 834-4328

jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com

• The two key risks, energy prices and the Fed, are keeping uncertainty high and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

positioning low. Nora Szentivanyi

• We keep OW EM FX supported by the cyclical outlook; MW EM rates, (44-20)nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com7134-7544

recognizing increasing two-sided risks for inflation and central banks; and J.P. Morgan Securities plc

MW EM credit, both sovereigns and corporates, as tight valuations lean against Anezka Christovova

an otherwise constructive tone. (44-20) 7742-2630

anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.com

Macro Developments J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Arindam Sandilya

• The global cyclical outlook remains resilient, underpinned by a consumer (65) 6882-7759

smoothing through the energy shock. arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

• China’s economy lost momentum in 2Q but is expected to lift in 2H, Ben Ramsey

underpinned by fiscal support. (1-212) 834-4308

• Energy inflation fades, but global core inflation remains sticky. benjamin.h.ramsey@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Top trading themes Yang-Myung Hong

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

• EM local markets - FX: Stay OW Latam and EMEA EM vs. UW Asia with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

longs in higher carry currencies and/or currencies with hawkish central banks

and shorts in low yielding energy importers. OWs include *NEW* COP, MXN,

CLP, ZAR, HUF and CZK.