TC Energy Corp: Thoughts into 2Q26: 2Q Results Headed Down the Fairway; Backlog Dominates Discourse

研报英文原文证据摘录

TC Energy Corp: Thoughts into 2Q26: 2Q Results Headed Down the Fairway; Backlog Dominates Discourse

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

TRP Price Target Calculation (C$) TC Energy Corp (Overweight; Price Target: C$106.00)

Price Target Calculation Investment Thesis

PV of DCF/Share $58.91

We expect TRP’s leading natural gas platform to deliver meaningful, highly accretive

PV of Terminal Value $46.64

Value Per TRP Share $106.00 expansion opportunities, driving above midstream peer growth. We see these smaller, high-

return natgas projects, focused on demand pull across North America such as LNG export

Assumptions or gas gen for data centers), continuing for an extended period of time. On the nuclear front,

Discount Rate 8.00%

the MCR continues to deliver steady growth, with the Ontario IESO’s Bruce C feasibility Implied Terminal Growth Rate -2.50%

study foreshadowing future expansion (with hosting SMRs possible in the next decade).

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Overall, standing at the crossroads of the two strongest sector themes, natgas for LNG/

power/data center power and future nuclear growth, we continue to see TRP as ideally

positioned and presenting an attractive opportunity.

Valuation

We establish a Dec 2027 C$106 PT (versus C$95 Dec 2026 PT), on a discounted cash flow

methodology in which we forecast DCF/share for 10 years and use an appropriate terminal

growth rate and required rate of return based on leverage/liquidity risk, dividend coverage

outlook, volumetric/recontracting risk, regulatory/legal risk, commodity/marketing risk,

take-or-pay contract profile, and other factors.

TRP Price Target Calculation