Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – National Medical Care Company (4005.SE)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Total beds 1,178 1,205 1,205 1,405

Inpatient admissions 30,770 33,745 36,929 41,268

Utilization rate (%) 84.5 82.8 85.7 78.7

Outpatient visits 954 989 1,009 1,171

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Population growth in KSA (+16% from 2025- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

2035, at a CAGR of 1.5%) Additional M&A activity

Expansion of private health insurance coverage Accelerated rollout of private health insurance Sales / 1,636

Shortage of hospital beds in KSA coverage for the B-C class bracket Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Potential M&A activity (SAR, mn) consensus data for this metric

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Intensified competition in home markets: e.g.

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Riyadh (429) EBITDA

Faster implementation of DRG payments (SAR, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

system consensus data for this metric

100% MEA Execution/ramp-up risks for new pipeline

project targeting VIP/A insurance class

5.92

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (SAR) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplyingView explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING consensus data for this metric

Inst. Owners, % Active 10.3%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x 2.00

DPS

HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1% Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (SAR)

consensus data for this metric

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposure.