Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Dallah Healthcare (4004.SE)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Inpatients 1,251 1,253 1,505 1,540

Total beds 1,903 1,903 1,903 2,003

Outpatients 2,541 2,543 3,056 3,126

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Population growth in KSA (+16% from 2025- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

2035, at a CAGR of 1.5%) Greater market expansion for the premium

Expansion of private health insurance coverage insurance class in Riyadh Sales / 4,344

Shortage of hospital beds in KSA Further divestment of portfolio assets Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Capacity expansion pipeline: one hospital and Accelerated rollout of private health insurance (SAR, mn) consensus data for this metric

250 beds by 2030 coverage across KSA

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (917)

EBITDA

Intensified competition in home markets: e.g. (SAR, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Riyadh/premium insurance bracket consensus data for this metric

100% MEA Faster implementation of DRG payments

system

Execution risks for pipeline projects 5.38

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (SAR) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

View explanation of regional hierarchies here consensus data for this metric

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 9.1%

DPS

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x 1.50 2.50

(SAR)

HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1% 2.10

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a