Timing In Life Is Everything; Previewing Timeshare Stocks for 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Timing In Life Is Everything; Previewing Timeshare Stocks for 2Q26

%)0.0%

recent loan cohorts. Shares have yet to recover to pre-1Q earnings levels, despite mgmt indicating HGV 0.2% (1.0%) (2.0%)

meaningful sequential improvement in 2Q (expected down ~40–50 bps) and our expectation for

JEF vs. Consensus

LLP to track in line with guidance. Overall, we view credit trends as stable-to-improving and expect 2027E Revenue Adj. EBITDA Adj. EPS

U.S. consumers in upper-middle- to high-income cohorts to remain on solid footing. The interest VAC 0.4% 0.8% 6.1%

TNL (0.3%) (0.8%) (2.7%)

rate environment remains a key variable, particularly into 2H26, and could impact financing market . HGV 0.6% (1.1%) (1.3%)

spreads, which have widened on a LTM basis. Source:ConsensusCompanyas Data,of JulyFactset,15, 2026.JefferiesGreen Estimates/ Red

shading denotes a change of 200 bps or more

Bottom Line: Taken together, in a choppy macro environment, we remain focused on business

model execution and prospects for visible growth. Heading into the quarter we reiterate our ratings

with selective conviction driven by divergent execution. In our view valuation across the space is

not a challenge with all-three stocks trading at the low end of historical levels (Page 3). We reiterate

Buy ratings on VAC, TNL, Hold on HGV and make modest adjustments to our HGV model heading

into the quarter. Our view is that VAC is in the early stages of an execution turnaround which should

accelerate later in 2026-2027 paired with industry leading assets and a large addressable market

given its ability to tap the Marriott Bonvoy and World of Hyatt loyalty programs (~330M members

combined). We expect TNL to continue its modest beat and raise cadence on solid execution,

with 6.6x 2027E EBITDA leaving considerable upside.