4Q26 – A Mountain Out of a Molehill

研报英文原文证据摘录

4Q26 – A Mountain Out of a Molehill

/t. The combined $42/t improvement

Earnings Changes. We have updated ourequates to ~$0.87/lb of mining cost relief, with a further $0.30/lb expected from normalised

estimates to account for Q4FY26 results.productivity. We forecast AISC of $5.00/lb in 1Q27 and $5.15/lb in FY27.

Liquidity optionally through 1HFY27. Jericho & Eloise expansion continue to pressure the BS,

Figure 1 - A1M Comparative Quarterly Results

vs Jeff Con. vs Con. 3Q26A QoQ 4Q26Ewith $11-15m remaining on the EPC, $6m creditor payments due in Q1, $5.0-7.5m remaining

-15%

ore 10%-1% 3% ktkt 172168

172 -17% minedmilled head grade %

-6%-0% %CuEloise supporting infrastructure spend, and JEFe $26.7m remaining Jericho spend. Offsetting recoveryproducedcopper -8% EloiseTotalTotalAverageCopperCopperGold Producedore -9%1%1% 8% 3.271.48 kozkt 2.32%93.6%3.301.59 149157 4Q26A1.92%94.1%2.991.61147 2.05%94.3%3.241.48

CashAISC 71%47% Cost A/lbA/lb 4.182.44 6.154.17 2.445.06the remaining cash outflows is the remaining US$10m ($15.1m) Trafigura drawdown, -9%8%

AIC 45% 71%22%20% 2.874.89 45%26% A/lb 4.49 6.49 5.41

$7.5m of finished concentrate unwind, and JEFe $43.4m H1 FY27 CFs from the underlying .Source:Operating Mine CashflowCompanyA$mReports,42 Visible26 -39%Alpha, Jefferies35 -27%

operations. Further equipment finance headroom also remains available. Our calculations

indicate sufficient funding for the remaining Jericho / Eloise expansion spend, and supports Figure 2 - Q1 FY26 Cash Flow Waterfall

the likely sanctioning of the 1.5Mtpa expansion on 20-Jul-26.

Pulling the trigger on 1.5Mtpa? AIC have socialised the ability to expand Eloise to 1.5Mtpa,

underpinning output growth to 27-30ktpa Cu, subject to Reserve support. We estimate