Storm Costs Thin the High End of 2026 Guidance; We Expect the Range to Hold

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Storm Costs Thin the High End of 2026 Guidance; We Expect the Range to Hold

NORTH AMERICA | Power & Utilities

CMS Energy EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEStorm Costs Thin the High End of 2026

RATING HOLDGuidance; We Expect the Range to Hold

PRICE $74.02^

We model 2Q26 EPS of $0.35 vs. the Street at $0.68; ~$0.30 of the decline is a

non-repeating gain plus weather and storm, so the print resets consensus, not PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $78.00 ($74.00) | +5%

the plan. The July storm uses up the cushion the plan carried for one storm, 52W HIGH-LOW $80.36 - $68.64

thinning the guide's high end. Datacenter progress remains muted. NorthStar FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.5% | 265.43

is still unresolved. We reiterate HOLD; our PT moves to $78.00 as we mark-to- MARKET CAP $22.8B

market. TICKER CMS ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Same CAGR, new base? We stay at HOLD as NorthStar dilution and datacenter accretion both

remain open issues. The $24bn utility capital plan, the 10.5% disclosed rate base trajectory, and the

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

6% to 8% EPS band are intact and funded in the company plan under current assumptions. What is

2026 2027 2026 2027

unresolved is whether a NorthStar decision rebases EPS growth lower the way the 2021 EnerBank sale

DPS NA NA -1% NM

did, and whether an accretive large load contract converts from pipeline to a filed tariff. Neither has a date.

EPS NA NM -1% -1%

What’s changed since our downgrade?: a third round of storm costs arrived; still no data center

announcement. Storms from July 1 through 4 cut power to more than 224k customers across 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

multiple waves, and we estimate ~$50m of restoration expense on top of the March and June EPS 1.13 0.35 1.21 1.18 3.87

events.