TX Batch Zero Milestone Is The Interim Proof Point: 2Q26 Preview. Stay Hold

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TX Batch Zero Milestone Is The Interim Proof Point: 2Q26 Preview. Stay Hold

ransmission and lingering data center opposition is a short-term

overhang. Governor Abbott's letter and public statements dovetail with some legislators arguing for Exhibit 1 - SRE - FY3 (2028) PE Multiple %

legislation. We expect elevated noise heading into the 2027 legislative session, and hence watch Premium/Discount (5-Year Average)

for management’s commentary around the risk framework. On CA, we expect limited legislative

commentary: Final deadline on August 31st (72-hour rule points to August 28th).

TX data center is incremental to the $10Bn upside capital plan outlook, but finality in

investment scope will only emerge in 2H27. ERCOT’s endorsement of the Eastern STEP projects

is underpinned by the 150GW 2030 peak load forecast, under the 2024 RTP. We see net upside to .Source: Jefferies LLC and FactSet

the 150GW of peak demand forecasted under the 2024 RTP study; albeit not to the full extent of We see risk California legislation

the 320GW by 2030 and 368GW by 2032, under the preliminary 2026 RTP forecast. ERCOT’s project underwhelms, likely with muted downside

classification outcome (i.e. whether a project is in the base load, study load, or excluded) on August 7th effect on shares. We remain above Street

should provide an early demand gauge, while the final study load allocation expected on April 9th, 2027 estimates, but see limited avenues to

should settle the TX load debate in the intermediate-term (i.e. before 2029). Transmission study later catalyzing that uplift in the near-term.

that Fall will firm up investment scope.

$1.05 2Q26 EPS JEFe, inline with $1.06 Street. The YoY earnings uplift are largely driven by Oncor's