2Q Preview | Rates Drop Back But Yield Bump to last into 2Q/3Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview | Rates Drop Back But Yield Bump to last into 2Q/3Q

Switzerland | Transport & Logistics

Kuehne + Nagel EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q Preview | Rates Drop Back But Yield Bump

RATING BUYto last into 2Q/3Q

PRICE CHF210.60^

Spot rates have dropped back to 1Q26 levels in Air & Sea (Figure 4) which

may mean yields fall back in Air (in 3Q) & Sea (in 4Q). The yield bump should PRICE TARGET | % TO PT CHF220.00 | +4%

show up in 2Q/3Q earnings & we raise 2Q/FY ests. In a normal environment 52W HIGH-LOW CHF212.50 - CHF147.40

underlying S/D dynamics should be the driver of yields in Sea (oversupplied) FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 44.3% | 46.62

& Air (balanced to tight). We see upside risk to '28 Cons on AI cost out (Jef MARKET CAP CHF25.0B | $31.0B

+10% vs Cons), however, there is risk that the messaging on the savings TICKER KNIN SW ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

leans cautious. noted.

Air yields likely saw 2Q as the top. We forecast air yields increasing to CHF850/t in 2Q vs FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

CHF790/t in 1Q. We expect that this will be the peak in yields as 2Q saw a reduction in freighter 2026 2027 2026 2027

capacity (largely belly capacity) of up to 20%. This reduction has now mediated back to 5-10%, REV NA NA +15% +17%

relieving pressure on yields (Figure 4). From a volume perspective we forecast flat headline

EPS +3% <1% +6% +3%

volumes which incorporate mid-single digit organic growth rate with an offset from lower e-

commerce volumes (related to de minimus rules). Into 3Q we expect yields to drop back from

2026 (CHF) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

CHF850/t towards the 1Q level, however, underlying volume growth should remain robust with

EPS -- -- -- -- 8.81

demand driven by tech verticals.

PREV 8.58