TotalEnergies: 2Q TS - Solid enough quarter but not the EPS upside of the UK majors

研报英文原文证据摘录

TotalEnergies: 2Q TS - Solid enough quarter but not the EPS upside of the UK majors

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

16 July 2026

TotalEnergies Overweight

TTEF.PA, TTE FP

2Q TS - Solid enough quarter but not the EPS upside of Price (15 Jul 26):€70.64

the UK majors Price Target (Jun-27):€83.00

Our Take - fundamentally fine; mixed moving parts. Trading statement European Oil & Gas

ACindicators look fundamentally solid but unlikely to stimulate the EPS revision Matthew Lofting, CFA

upside to JPMe/consensus (NI: $6.5-7.0bn) seen at UK majors Shell and BP. (44-20) 7134-6301

Cashflow generation broadly delivers on the clear deleveraging anticipated in our matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

Tactical Views report; guidance is for a 200bps improvement vs. JPMe ~250bps Tianyu Wu

including a slightly lower WC release at the midpoint ($1.25bn vs. JPMe $1.5bn). (44-20) 3493-1281

Within that, we note; 1) Directionally stronger than JPMe signals in Downstream tianyu.wu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and Integrated Power including still strong oil trading (consistent with Shell/BP)

and completion of the EPH transaction respectively; 2) Against that, Integrated Specialist Sales contact details:

LNG is expected to ‘decrease significantly’ q/q (our est: modest decline). This is

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

led by weaker gas/LNG trading compared to the UK majors performing flatter European Energy

sequentially; 3) E&P production is higher than we forecast (2.4mboe/d, JPMe (44-20) 7134-1356

2.2mboe/d). This is due to a lower than previously guided Middle East asset impact ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

(210kboe/d vs. prior guide 360) though TotalEnergies guides a significant portion

of these volumes could not be lifted in-quarter. When we get to results next