GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

研报英文原文证据摘录

GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

Global Equity Research AC Global Equity Research

16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

gr_publications@jpmorgan.com

Production steadies, domestic demand drags

• 2Q GDP slowed to 4.3%oya; sequential momentum weakened.

• June IP stabilized, led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing.

• FAI remained the main drag, led by property and private investment.

• Retail sales improved, but household demand stayed soft.

• We lower 2026 real GDP growth to 4.6%y/y on weaker demand/external risks, but lift 3Q/4Q to 4.3%/4.9%q/q saar on

stronger fiscal support.

• Policy must turn fiscal resources into domestic demand to support 2H growth.

Aura Minerals (Tathiane Martins Candini), Brazil

Lowering Estimates, Maintaining Overweight

We are updating our outlook on Aura Minerals to reflect a materially changed gold price environment. Following a stretch of

robust central bank–led demand that propelled gold to record levels, the JPM Commodities team has revised its near-term

price forecasts sharply lower, as the market's marginal price driver shifts back to rate-sensitive ETF flows and, with them, a

renewed sensitivity to the Fed's policy path. This near-term reset, however, does not alter the structural, long-term bullish case

for gold, which remains anchored in ongoing central bank diversification away from the US dollar and significant remaining "dry

powder" for future buying. Against this backdrop - and following Aura's recent production and sales miss, we have incorporated

a new price deck into our estimates and latest production figures, resulting in a revised price target. Even so, we reaffirm our

Overweight rating, as we continue to see compelling upside to the shares, supported by an attractive dividend yield and strong

free cash flow generation for 2027.