US Retailing - Hardlines: Calendar 2Q EPS Previews (TSCO, ORLY, BOOT, FND & VVV) — Expecting a Mixed Bag and Watching for Surprises

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US Retailing - Hardlines: Calendar 2Q EPS Previews (TSCO, ORLY, BOOT, FND & VVV) — Expecting a Mixed Bag and Watching for Surprises

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16 Jul 2026 03:00:00 ET │ 42 pages

US Retailing - Hardlines

Calendar 2Q EPS Previews (TSCO, ORLY, BOOT, FND & VVV) –

Expecting a Mixed Bag and Watching for Surprises

Steven Zaccone, CFA AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-7089

The common theme from calendar 2Q previews — it’s a mixed bag. The steven.zaccone@citi.com

outperformers are likely VVV (we see beat and raise), BOOT (steady Ariana H Warden

strength), and ORLY (beat and raise). The laggards are TSCO (we see miss

and guidance cut) and FND (continued soft trends). The potential surprises +1-212-816-9450

are: (1) the magnitude of the beat at VVV + BOOT and the miss at TSCO; (2) ariana.warden@citi.com

any significant strategy change at TSCO or M&A commentary from ORLY;

and (3) whether investor sentiment shifts to “buy the last cut” at a TSCO or

FND. Our stock calls – TSCO shares have been under pressure, but at this

point we do not see a multi-year investment cycle that needs to happen. Its

strategy adjustments in pet & pricing are already underway. VVV – we

introduce a positive 90-day short-term view based on beat-and-raise Q

with incremental price increases from geopolitical tensions rising again.

TSCO (Buy-Rated; Lower TP to $37): The Miss & Guidance Cut is Priced In; The

Strategy Is What Matters Now — We lower our 2Q SSS estimate to -1.5% and EPS

to $0.80, both below Street expectations, driven by weakening high-frequency data

and soft pet segment trends. We anticipate a downward revision to FY26 guidance,

modeling a full-year SSS decline of -1.3% and EPS of $1.90. Despite lowering our TP

to $37, we reiterate our Buy rating as strategy changes underway and the stock's