Aura Minerals: Lowering Estimates, Maintaining Overweight

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Aura Minerals: Lowering Estimates, Maintaining Overweight

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

15 July 2026

Aura Minerals

Lowering Estimates, Maintaining Overweight

We are updating our outlook on Aura Minerals to reflect a materially changed gold LatAm Basic Materials

ACprice environment. Following a stretch of robust central bank–led demand that Tathiane Martins Candini

propelled gold to record levels, the JPM Commodities team has revised its near- (55-11) 4950-4116

term price forecasts sharply lower, as the market's marginal price driver shifts back tathiane.m.candini@jpmorgan.com

to rate-sensitive ETF flows and, with them, a renewed sensitivity to the Fed's policy Rodolfo Angele, CFA

path. This near-term reset, however, does not alter the structural, long-term bullish (55-11) 4950-3888

case for gold, which remains anchored in ongoing central bank diversification rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

away from the US dollar and significant remaining "dry powder" for future buying.

Against this backdrop - and following Aura's recent production and sales miss, we

have incorporated a new price deck into our estimates and latest production figures,

Figure 6: Comp Tableresulting in a revised price target. Even so, we reaffirm our Overweight rating, as

we continue to see compelling upside to the shares, supported by an attractive EV/EBITDA P/E

26E 27E 26E 27E

dividend yield and strong free cash flow generation for 2027. Aura Minerals 4.9x 2.7x 11.6x 4.4x

Newmont Mining 5.3x 4.7x 9.7x 8.8x

• Revised gold prices downward. After a period of strong demand from central Barrick Mining 4.6x 3.9x 9.4x 8.1x

banks, the JPM Commodities team sees gold reverting to being primarily "Fed- Agnico Eagle 5.6x 5.0x 11.1x 10.7x

AngloGold Ashanti 4.4x 4.0x 7.9x 7.6x