2Q26 CIO Survey Takeaways – GenAI Leadership Position Remains Clear

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2Q26 CIO Survey Takeaways – GenAI Leadership Position Remains Clear

re of GenAI spend. Relative to broader software, CIOs Q2 3.23 - 5.16a 4.88 4.86

Q3 3.46 - 4.27a 4.84 4.92

expect the highest forward-year growth for Microsoft (vs. other vendors) in terms of Q4 3.65 4.21 4.21 5.30 5.13

absolute growth expectations at +7.6%, up from +7.3% in our 4Q25 survey. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Microsoft also continues to lead the group from a net software spending

perspective at 72% of CIOs expecting to see an increase in net spending on

Microsoft tools (up from 67% in 2Q25), demonstrating the company's AI leadership

position translating to budget dollars. Further, Microsoft continues to be the leading

vendor for gaining incremental share of GenAI spend in 2026 and over the next 3

years. We continue to view the durability of Azure growth, improving M365

Commercial Cloud (and Copilot) momentum, and EPS growth as underappreciated

at 16x GAAP FY28 P/E; remain Overweight.

Core Microsoft spending intentions: 1) Azure spend intentions remained strong in

2Q26 – of the CIOs who currently use or plan to use Azure, 62% expect to increase

spend over the next 12 months, above the 57% of CIOs that expected to increase

Azure spend in 2Q25; 2) M365 / O365 spending intentions materially upticked –

with 65% of CIOs indicating intent to increase spend in the next 12 months, vs. 46%

in 2Q24 and 55% in 2Q25 – while the longer-term E1/E3/E5 mix shift continues to be

more bullish for Microsoft, indicating sustained shift toward higher subscription

tiers, as 50% of CIOs using M365 expect to use E5 next year, inline with 50% from Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with