JPM | APAC THEMATICS - AI Capex Plays: Holding pattern until Google / HK Property: Use the 20% pullback to buy as rates ease / Crude: Fade the bounce (again) / China Macro: Expanded fiscal support likely in 2H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - AI Capex Plays: Holding pattern until Google / HK Property: Use the 20% pullback to buy as rates ease / Crude: Fade the bounce (again) / China Macro: Expanded fiscal support likely in 2H26

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

15 July 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - AI Capex Plays: Holding pattern until

Google / HK Property: Use the 20% pullback to buy as rates ease

/ Crude: Fade the bounce (again) / China Macro: Expanded fiscal

support likely in 2H26

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: AI capex plays struggle for near-term direction. ASML price action made this clear (from +7% to -

0.5%). Today we have TSMC’s 2Q - where we expect a GPM beat. But ultimately… until we hear from Google next week

when they kick-off hyperscaler 2Q results (let’s see if they can deliver another capex beat-and-raise), AI supply-chain names

will likely struggle for direction. Equities continue to trade in 13 week blocks - based on prevailing US CSP quarterly capex

updates!

The case to revisit HK property stocks. Recent positive surprises in US CPI-PPI have driven a reversal in Fed hike

expectations, with US 2y yields -15bps in 2 days. HK property is a clear beneficiary given $-peg. The sector recently broke

out of an extended downcycle thanks to an rebound in residential prices - now +19% from the low. The recent 20% pullback

in our HK property basket = an opportunity to buy.

US overnight... S&P +0.4%, rotation into Mag7 +2.3% (out of SOX). US equities & bonds extended their post‑inflation

relief rally on a softer PPI print (-0.3% m/m). Semis lagged as ASML price action caused concern. Memory slumped, Micron