TF1 & M6: H1 Previews - Cut advertising & EBITA to reflect macro headwinds; Consolidation upside... but not until 2028 / 29

研报英文原文证据摘录

TF1 & M6: H1 Previews - Cut advertising & EBITA to reflect macro headwinds; Consolidation upside... but not until 2028 / 29

Daniel Kerven AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3057 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

daniel.kerven@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

TF1 (Overweight; Price Target: €9.30)

Investment Thesis

TF1 has used its strong cash flow to diversify in recent years, building a studios business

that is seeing strong demand. In the medium term, we believe that price rises can offset the

gradual erosion of linear audiences given that TF1 will remain essential to advertising

seeking to build brands and launch new products as TV continues to offer something unique

– fast reach and high quality, brand safe video ad inventory. Over time, we expect TF1 can

migrate its traditional linear audience to linear addressable and to on-demand video, where

the viewer can benefit from a better UX and TF1 from better monetisation as its inventory

becomes data driven, targeted and more valuable.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 DCF-based PT reduces from €9.6 to €9.3, based on a WACC of 10.2% and LT

growth of 0%. We have an OW rating.

DCF valuation

WACC 10.2%

NPV to 2030E 442

Terminal cashflow (normalised) 178

LT growth rate 0.0%

Terminal Value 1,750

Discounted Terminal Value 1,141

Enterprise Value 1,583

Associates 80

Less: minorities -98

Net (debt)/cash 382

Equity Value 1,946

Shares in Issue (m) 210

Fair Value per share (€) 9.3

Current share price 6.76

Fair value Ex new intiatives 9.0

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Main risks to achieving our target price and rating include:

• Lower advertising revenues

• Higher-than-expected operating costs

• Value-diluting acquisitions

• An unexpected loss of audience share