2Q Preview and Model Refresh

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview and Model Refresh

he reported increase of 15% YoY. In terms of net debt, we expect the company to reach PREV 2.09

€11.0bn, up from €10.6bn at 6M26, mainly due to higher investments and share buybacks. For

further details, see Exhibit 3.

We undertake a broad model refresh, with our updated estimates largely aligned with ExhibitEBITDA €m 1 - JEF Endesa2Q25 2Q262Q26YoY Preview1H25 1H26 YoY

consensus. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the company’s guidance provided earlier ConventionalRenewables 357178 483219 35%23% 711429 850440 20%3%

Networks 476 466 -2% 944 1,145 21%this year, as well as quarterly and mark-to-market effects. As a result, we increase our net Customers 266 305 15% 619 645 4% Structures & Adj. 3 -5 -267% 8 20 150%

income estimates by an average of 14% across 2026–28. Overall, our FY26–28 Group EBITDA/ TotalD&A andEBITDAProvisions 1,280-545 1,468-569 15%4% -1,1172,711 -1,1383,100 14%2%

Financial Results & others -104 -54 -48% -189 -145 -23%Net income forecasts are broadly in line with consensus. EBIT 735 899 22% 1,594 1,962 23% PROFIT BEFORE TAX 631 845 34% 1,405 1,817 29%

Income tax -158 -231 46% -345 -472 37%

Minorities -15 -6 -60% -19 -12 -37%

Buybacks. Endesa had completed c.€1.1bn of buybacks by end-June, leaving around €0.9bn .Source:Net ordinaryJefferiesincome Estimates,458 608Company33% Data.1,041 1,333 28%

of remaining capacity under its €2.0bn authorised programme, which runs until end-2027. We

assume the remaining amount will be fully executed by end-1H27. The recently approved sixth

tranche of up to €0.5bn, to be executed between 15 July and 27 November 2026, would imply

purchases of c.€5m/day, or around c.16% of average daily trading volume.

We are increasing our PT to €35.00, up c. 30%, and reiterate our Hold rating.