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Feedback On Our Coverage Resumption
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Feedback On Our Coverage Resumption
nsus’ topline declines & $2, respectively. This call
generated by far the most investor interest following our resumption, we think in
part due to 1) long-dated negative Department Store sub-sector views, & 2) mostly
neutral to negative Street views on M stock specifically. Our conversations were
largely educational, focusing on – 1) our Reimagine store analysis assumptions &
recent changes in company disclosure, 2) what the Reimagine transformation has
entailed (more here), & 3) the state of the department store industry (possible
consolidation among survivors – the “last man standing” component of our thesis,
Off-Price gains potentially slowing, if peer bankruptcies distorted recent gains, etc.).
Most questions revolved around 4) M’s ability to flow topline upside through to the
bottom-line, 5) the catalyst from here (more below), 6) what inning M is in with
respect to Bold New Chapter execution, & 7) margin implications from the
Reimagine roll-out. Our takeaways are two-fold – investors 1) first need to re-
acquaint themselves with the M story & department store sub-sector overall before
underwriting a more durable sales recovery, & 2) found the “last man standing”
industry dynamic particularly compelling (despite representing the smallest driver
of our constructive topline view…). Looking ahead, we think consistent net sales
outperformance could become a key catalyst for positive EPS revisions & valuation
re-rating, with 1Q27 particularly important following further non-go-forward Macy’s
banner closures & a potentially further evolved reporting structure – where the
impact of the Reimagine strategy should be clearer. The underlying data that
supports our Turnaround Tracker is reviewed in detail here, & our Reimagine store
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