CE3 FX Strategy: Steady does it: We remain OW HUF and CZK and do not chase Zloty weakness

研报英文原文证据摘录

CE3 FX Strategy: Steady does it: We remain OW HUF and CZK and do not chase Zloty weakness

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

15 July 2026

CE3 FX Strategy: Steady does it

We remain OW HUF and CZK and do not chase Zloty

weakness

Emerging Markets Strategy

Anezka Christovova AC

(44-20) 7742-2630

anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.com

Michael Harrison

• CE3 FX has recently come under some pressure as downside inflation surprises (44-20)michael.p.harrison@jpmorgan.com7134 5720

have inspired dovish central bank shifts in Hungary and Poland, while external

Shaun Daly risks have resurfaced.

(44-20) 7134-0776

• While we acknowledge the uncertainty on Fed and energy, we do not see the shaun.daly@jpmorgan.com

bearish direction as well founded. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Regional cyclical outlook has proven resilient with upside risks; core inflation

is increasingly showing signs of stickiness which should limit dovish scope for

regional central banks.

• External risks linger, but markets have already digested substantial repricings

of energy and US yields.

• Additionally, CZK and PLN positioning is rather low compared to recent years.

HUF positioning is extended, though it should prove sticky based on the

underlying revaluation scope.

• PLN: We are not inclined to chase Zloty weakness with bearish

expressions; stay MW. Underlying data does not support a meaningful easing

by the NBP, while we still expect the authorities to be sensitive to sharp zloty

moves (EURPLN levels above 4.40). Our inclination is to fade EURPLN, but

we lack a catalyst for now.

• CZK: Stay OW. Growth recovery, hawkish CNB, low positioning and high

carry-to-vol argue for a bullish stance, although until external risks subside, we

do not expect much spot appreciation.

• HUF: Stay OW; with medium term RVs.