China Consumer Strategy: June retail sales return to growth on easier comps; 15th FYP sets the goal, not the how

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China Consumer Strategy: June retail sales return to growth on easier comps; 15th FYP sets the goal, not the how

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

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China Consumer Strategy

June retail sales return to growth on easier comps; 15th

FYP sets the goal, not the how

China’s retail sales moved back into positive territory in June, rising 1.0% YoY Consumer

ACafter a 0.6% YoY decline in May, ahead of Bloomberg consensus (-0.1% YoY), Jessie Xu

though the rebound was helped by an easier comparison base; on a two-year (852) 2800-8590

stacked basis, June retail sales were up 5.8%, roughly in line with May. By jessie.j.xu@jpmorgan.com

category, consumer electronics led the improvement (+13-17% YoY), followed J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

by cosmetics (+13%) and food & beverage (+8%), while home durables and

Qian Yao

autos continued to weigh on the headline with HSD-DD declines. For 1H26, total (86-21) 6106 6277

retail sales increased 1.3% YoY, but momentum cooled meaningfully in 2Q qian.q.yao@jpmorgan.com

(+0.2% vs 1Q at +2.4%). With 6.18 campaigns in the quarter, 2Q online retail sales SAC Registration Number: S1730521050001

(+2.6%) further outperformed offline (-0.6%). The recently announced J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited

‘Expanding Consumption in the 15th FYP’ implies a 3.7% CAGR target – Yibo Wu

encouraging in principle, but still light on the ‘how’, suggesting a back-end- (852) 2800-8559