Jul 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Demand Brisk in 1st Half of Jul, but No Particular Recovery as an Average with Jun

研报英文原文证据摘录

Jul 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Demand Brisk in 1st Half of Jul, but No Particular Recovery as an Average with Jun

Update

July 15, 2026 10:03 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MCentral Japan Railway (9022) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Jul 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Shinkansen Passenger Volume:

Demand Brisk in 1st Half of Jul,

but No Particular Recovery as

Central Japan Railway (9022.T, 9022 JT)

Railways | Japan

an Average with Jun Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥3,350

Key Takeaways Shr price, close (Jul 15, 2026) ¥3,694 Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥3,528.4

Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume data (up to Jul 14) released by JR Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥11.1

Central post-close on Jul 15 indicate Tokyo gate +4% YoY (Osaka gate 0%).

We infer that Jun was noticeably affected as poor weather (typhoons, rainy

season, also earthquakes) discouraged trips, and that the 1st half of Jul may have

seen a rebound from that.

Compared with the Apr-May avg. of +3% YoY (weighted avg. of Tokyo gate &

Osaka gate), the Jun-Jul avg. of -4% YoY suggests momentum is currently

worsening.

JR Central assumes transportation revenue -4% YoY for F3/27 1H (-5% with end of

Expo effect, +1% core demand growth).

We will be interested to see o-Bon assigned seat reservations data from JR

companies, which the past pattern suggests may be published next week (week

ending Jul 24).

Exhibit 1: YoY growth in Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume (%)

Osaka expo Tokyo gate

Osaka gate

the three-day

weekend effect

GW

-5

-10

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-15