AU GIs: June MtMs and Result Previews

研报英文原文证据摘录

AU GIs: June MtMs and Result Previews

Australia | Insurance EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:AU GIs: June MtMs and Result Previews

The outlook for the AU GIs will remain driven by moderating premium TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

growth, while share prices will likely reflect the sector's defensive IAG AU BUY AUD9.45

characteristics. Price targets are revised by +5% to +8% due to changes in QBE AU HOLD AUD27.50

relative multiples since the last publication, currency, and the time value of SUN AU HOLD AUD19.75

money, which impact our NPV Valuations. EPS revisions are mostly minor,

with SUN's FY26 EPS +8% post the July Update. QBE downgraded to Hold

on valuation grounds. KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

Premium Growth Trends: With the domestic insurers facing increased competition, IAG AU BUY AUD9.45 (AUD8.75)

affordability issues, and benefitting from lower reinsurance costs, premium growth rates

QBE AU HOLD AUD27.50 (AUD26.25)

have moderated in FY26. Commercial lines in particular remain in a rate-reduction phase

due to increased capacity, while domestic personal lines should remain positive due to SUN AU HOLD AUD19.75 (AUD18.40)

persistent weather-related vulnerability. That said, household insurance costs are pushing

against affordability and increasingly attracting the attention of Canberra.

Figure 1 - IAG Historic P/E Ratio

Natural Perils and Reinsurance Dynamics: The late 2025 storm season subjected the IAG P/E IAG Average +1 Stdev -1 Stdev

domestic insurers to significant natural perils overruns. The 1H26 results for SUN and IAG 22.0x

registered overruns of $435m and $135m, respectively. FY26 guidance updates suggest both 20.0x

will finish over budget with only minor relief in 2H26. Importantly, with SUN's new 5-Year 18.0x