2Q26 - Aquarius Waning

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 - Aquarius Waning

bounds (Figure 12) driving significant

revenue uncertainty. We model Golden Grove as exceeding the guidance mid-point of all by-

products excluding Au (11.7ktZn, 10.8kozAu and 545kozAg) with our forecasts necessitating

Earnings Changes. We have updated forlikely earlier/larger contributions from Xantho, Oizon/Hougoumont, Scuddles or Gossan Valley.

2Q26 results, and marginally adjusted long-

Looking forward at Golden Grove. Establishment of the third alternate level access at Xantho term revenue (recovery, payabilities) and cost

extended will bypass smaller pillar zones, thereby reducing the risk of further production drivers (unit costs) in '26-27.

disruptions due to seismic events with the restart of mining guided for 4Q26. Gossan Valley

remains on track for first ore by end-2026. In our view, Gossan Valley is increasingly important

Figure 1 - 2Q26 cashflow waterfallas a replacement and stabilising mining front as Xantho recovery stretches and Scuddles

winds down; the Scuddles lease expired on 8-Dec-2025, but operations can continue while the

21-year extension is assessed.

Corporate. Liquidity of $202m (from $232m) post the 1Q26 $143m equity raise. Net -$7m cash

flow at Golden Grove with $32m investing cash flow vs $37.5m reported capital unwinding ~

$5.5m of 1Qs $23m positive differential. We expect capital deployment to be restrained until

Cap Copper permitting, and Xantho Extended access resumed later in CY26. Drawn debt fell to .

US$115m (from US$120m) with covenant relief through Jun-26 and modified Dec-26 DSCR / Source: Company reports, Jefferies

leverage tests on a six-month lookback. Mgmt continues to assess various non-dilutive funding

Figure 2 - 29M Comparative Quarterly Results