New Jersey Resources: Shares Near Fair Value Leave CEV as the Main Earnings Debate

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New Jersey Resources: Shares Near Fair Value Leave CEV as the Main Earnings Debate

NORTH AMERICA | Power & Utilities

New Jersey Resources EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEShares Near Fair Value Leave CEV as the Main

RATING HOLDEarnings Debate

PRICE $58.76^

NJR now trades at roughly parity with gas LDC peers, and near our $56 PT;

the re-rating reversion is done. Utility rate base compounding near 7.5% and PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $56.00 ($60.00) | -5%

contracted S&T growth carry the 7% to 9% growth trajectory, yet our EPS 52W HIGH-LOW $59.59 - $43.46

runs about 3% to 6% below consensus across FY28 to FY30. We expect the FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 100.1% | 43.63

November FY27 guide to reset the base as Energy Services normalizes; CEV is MARKET CAP $5.9B

option value, not yet a driver. We stay HOLD; $56.00 PT. TICKER NJR ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

NJR has re-rated from a roughly 27% discount to gas LDC peers at last autumn's trough to

near parity today, closing the gap that opened in 2025 on the New Jersey gubernatorial race, a

FY (Sep) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

readthrough from state electric affordability politics, and federal solar policy. The reversion is largely

complete vs. a one-year average discount of 13.2%. 2026 2027 2026 2027

EPS +4% +6% -1% NM

Growth continues to be driven by the utility and midstream, not clean energy. NJNG rate base NA NA NA NA

compounds near 7.5%, and Storage and Transportation more than doubles net financial earnings

by FY27 on favorable recontracting. Utility EPS rises from $2.02 in FY26 to $2.89 in FY30 on rate

base building toward $5.0bn, and S&T segment EPS more than doubles from $0.18 in FY25 to $0.55

in FY30. Exhibit 1 - NJR's FY3 P/E relative premium/

discount vs other gas LDCs.