Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Joinn Laboratories- Joinn LaboratoriesChina Co Ltd (603127.SS)China Co Ltd (603127.SS)

Unrivaled leadership in China’s DSA market

PRICE TARGET Rmb43.50 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

DCF - key assumptions: WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. RMB: HKD ▪Bellwether of China's DSA (drug safety

exchange rate of 1.1. assessment) industry.

entry barriers powered by global GLP Rmb30.91 ▪High

(good laboratory practice) qualifications,

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rmb12.60 Rmb45.83 strong track record and sufficient reserve of MS PT

lab monkeys.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

▪Fluctuating biotech funding both in China

and overseas causing volatility in contract

pricing and margins.

RISK REWARD CHART ▪Periodic re-valuation of lab monkey stock

compromises earnings quality.

CNY

Rmb65.00Rmb65.00(+28.41%)Rmb65.00(+28.41%)(+28.41%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

60 57% Overweight

Rmb50.62Rmb50.62Rmb50.62 29% Equal-weight

14% Underweight

45 Rmb43.50Rmb43.50(-14.07%)Rmb43.50(-14.07%)(-14.07%) MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rmb29.00Rmb29.00(-42.71%)Rmb29.00(-42.71%)(-42.71%) Risk Reward Themes

15 Secular Growth: Positive

Self-help: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE Rmb65.00 BASE CASE Rmb43.50 BEAR CASE Rmb29.00

72x bull-case 2027 EPS 52x base-case 2027 EPS 37x bear-case 2027 EPS

Projected earnings CAGR of 60%+, over Projected adjusted earnings CAGR of 46% Projected earnings CAGR of -10%, 2025-28e:

2025-28e: This presupposes blended over 2025-28e: This presupposes top-line This presupposes 1) revenue CAGRs much