Duke Energy: Fairly Valued, Fully Regulated, and Waiting on Raleigh

研报英文原文证据摘录

Duke Energy: Fairly Valued, Fully Regulated, and Waiting on Raleigh

of timing, not disallowance.

DUK has fallen out of favor to faster growers...

Large load is being de-risked rather than left as upside. The 2028 earnings step-up rests on about The base case return depends on a re-rate

4.5 GW of data center agreements energizing by late 2027, not the full 7.6 GW signed. None of that rather than an estimate revision, which is why

acceleration shows in the run-rate yet: weather-normal load rose just 0.3% YoY at 1Q against a 1.5% we HOLD into the order.

to 2% guide for 2026. Tighter cost allocation, from the Public Staff and a parallel FERC process, cuts

stranded-cost risk if the load slips but also caps the upside, since dedicated, minimum-bill terms earn a Exhibit 1 - DUK's FY3 P/E relative premium/

discount vs other utilities.

standard regulated return vs. potential for windfall profits. 10% 10%

8% 8%

New nuclear has become a larger part of the narrative. DUK is preserving two Carolinas paths: a 6%4% 6%4%

technology-neutral advanced reactor site at Belews Creek and two live AP1000 licenses at Lee. The 2%0% 2%0%

resource plan models 3,351 MW by 2040 and an initial 600 MW SMR or 1,117 MW large reactor -2%-4% -2%-4%

by 2037. -6%-8% -6%-8%

-10% -10%

Prem/(Disc) vs Regulated Electric Peers Average 1.2%2Q26 preview: We forecast 2Q26 adjusted EPS of $1.29 (vs. cons. of $1.31), up from $1.25 in 2Q25 . Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26

as $0.08 of weather benefit rolls off YoY. Rates, riders, load and customer growth add ~$0.20/ Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies LLC.

share, offset by weather, interest, D&A, DEF minority interest and other costs.

Valuation: as we mark-to-market, or PT moves to $136.00 from $138; maintain HOLD. A 10.1% ROE