China EV Tracker: Subdued by summer lull; recovery into Sep

研报英文原文证据摘录

China EV Tracker: Subdued by summer lull; recovery into Sep

14 July 2026

China EV Tracker EquitiesAutomobiles & Auto

Components

Subdued by summer lull; recovery into Sep China

◆ Auto demand likely muted in July-August summer low season; Yuqian Ding*

new models to drive mass-market rebound in 2H Head of China Technology & Autos Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

yuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Overseas remains key pillar supporting OEMs’ profitability +852 2288 5108

Li Yang*

◆ Prefer technology leaders with strong product cycles and Analyst, China Autos

overseas exposure Theli01.yang@hsbc.com.hkHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

+852 2288 6216

Summer low season coming; wait for September: China’s passenger vehicle retail Elaine Chen* (Reg. No. S1700524030001)

sales in June totalled 1.6m units, down 23% y-o-y (1H26 -20%) amid a structural “fuel Analyst, China Autos

HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

collapse”, while EV retail sales held firm at ~1m units, with penetration at 62.8%. Early elaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn

July data shows marginal y-o-y narrowing (-15% PV / -9% EV), but momentum remains +86 010 5795 2364

soft heading into the traditional July-August lull, with channel inventory destocking and

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

tepid consumer sentiment likely to cap a recovery before the September peak season. not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.

Over 160 new EV launches are scheduled for 2H26, with key models including: BYD

Qin Max, Sealion 08 and Da Han; Geely Galaxy TT, M5 and M8; XPeng MONA L03

and L05; and Li Auto i9, etc. Many new models are aimed at the mass-market

segment, which should help underpin a demand recovery in that category.