2Q Preview: E&Ps, Majors & Canada

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview: E&Ps, Majors & Canada

Idea

July 15, 2026 06:41 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMEnergy | North America Devin McDermott

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

2Q Preview: E&Ps, Majors & Devin.McDermott@morganstanley.comJoe Laetsch, CFA +1 212 761-1125

Equity Analyst

Joe.Laetsch@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8804

Canada Helen Lin

Research Associate

Helen.Lin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0766

Oil producers are set to report the strongest quarterly earnings Svetlana Do

since 2022, reflecting elevated oil prices and, for Integrateds, ResearchSvetlana.DO@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2409

strong downstream margins. As the Middle East situation Justin W Latran, CFA

remains fluid, we continue to recommend using large pullbacks ResearchJustin.Latran@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2869

to add exposure to high-quality names in the sector. Jacqueline M Kenny

Jacqueline.Kenny@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2253

Key Takeaways

Exploration & Production

We expect generally clean operational updates from US producers, with most North America

Industry View In-Line

reiterating activity plans outlined alongside 1Q earnings.

Integrated Energy

With industry-wide activity adds still muted, most indicated no cost or North America

Industry View Attractive

inflationary pressure relative to guidance, with optimism on further efficiency

gains.

Into 2Q earnings, our forecasts skew constructive for DVN, OXY, EQT, CVX, &

CNQ, and more cautious for MUR, NOG, TOU, & SU.

At $70, our oil coverage offers median '27 FCF yield of 9% (10% US E&Ps, 8%

Majors, 9% Canada). Valuations reflect ~$66 WTI. '27 FCF yields of 11% for gas.

Beyond the quarter, we retain our preference for Majors and E&Ps with positive

rate of change.