Quick Silver: ASML - Could we ask for more?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Quick Silver: ASML - Could we ask for more?

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nscott.silver@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 15 July 2026

Scott Silver

+44 207 134 0412

scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

Let’s start with capacity, which was clearly the main focus heading into the results. Buy-side expectations were for roughly

90–100 EUV tools in 2027 and 105+ in 2028. While the 2027 EUV capacity additions are a little underwhelming, 2028 is

shaping up to be a much bigger year. More importantly, this is a bullish message from ASML. The company is increasing

both EUV and DUV capacity, exactly what investors wanted to hear. Management is clearly trying to move away from the

perception that ASML is the industry’s bottleneck. Based on the numbers, we’re looking at approximately 85 EUV tools in

2027 and 110 in 2028. As one client put it, this provides a credible runway to €70+ EPS. Assuming 110 Low-NA systems, 5–

6 High-NA systems, 220 immersion DUV, and 250 dry DUV tools in 2028, equipment sales would reach roughly €53bn.

Add around €2bn of metrology and assume services at 22% of equipment sales, and you’re looking at ~€70bn of total

revenue. At a 48% operating margin, the earnings power becomes very compelling. The key question now is whether the

market is already there. My survey suggested investors were broadly expecting ~€60 EPS in 2028, with the more bullish

estimates around €65. So is this enough to get the stock moving? The obvious pushback will be that 2027 capacity is slightly

disappointing, but it’s hard to argue ASML could realistically commit to more today. Importantly, these numbers still have

room to move higher over time unless they tell us THIS IS IT.